Happy New Year to everyone!

There is a very good reason why the trend and general progression of tropospheric temp anomalies since 2000, as rendered by the new UAH.v6 dataset, are most likely correct. (Read this post to understand why it was necessary for UAH to update their tlt product from its version 5.6 in the first place.)

The reason is that they both match to near perfection the trends and general progression of incoming and outgoing radiation flux anomalies, as rendered by the CERES EBAF ToA Ed2.8 dataset, over that same period. They’re all flat …:


Figure 1. Incoming radiant heat (ASR, “absorbed solar radiation”) (gold) vs. outgoing radiant heat (OLR, “outgoing longwave radiation”) (red) at the global ToA, from March 2000 to July 2015.

Watch how there is an excess of incoming over outgoing during and after La Niñas (2000-2001, 2008-2009, 2011-2012), and an excess of outgoing over incoming during and after El Niños (2010). At other times the two more or less balance. As you can see, during 2015, the golden ASR curve has been considerably above the red OLR curve. They will most likely switch places within the next few months (post July 2015, the last data point, that is) as the current El Niño builds and peaks.

But the overall trend is completely – and impressively – flat in both series …

How does this line up with tropospheric temps? UAH tlt gl v6 vs. CERES gl ASR:

ASR vs. tlt

Figure 2.

More solar radiant heat absorbed by the Earth system below the ToA during La Niñas, less absorbed during El Niños. At other times, balance. ENSO-driven patterns in cloud and WV amount and distribution in the global tropospheric column are responsible. Note how only the solitary 2009/10 El Niño makes an impact, not the lesser Niños between the 1998-2001 and 2007-2009 La Niñas and after the 2010-2012 La Niña.

UAH tlt gl v6 vs. CERES gl OLR:

OLR vs. tlt

Figure 3.

I’ve shown this one before. But the correlation is still highly impressive (and, I would say, reassuring). ENSO-driven cloud/WV patterns make the OLR anomaly larger than you’d expect during La Niña 2007/08 and less than you’d expect during El Niño 2009/10, general mechanisms explained by e.g. Loeb et al. 2012.

I dare say you’d be pretty hard pressed to try to explain these plots away, including the rather obvious tropospheric “Pause” in ‘global warming’ …

2 comments on “UAH v6 vs. CERES EBAF ToA

  1. Russell says:

    Having read your exchange with Dr. Jan Perlwitz, which was great on your part and very childish on his, I have emailed him a comment on his part of the exchange with you. Your exchange with him should be shared far and wide.

    Dear Dr. Jan Perlwitz. 11 Jan 2016

    I happened to read a discussion on a blog today that you had with someone who called himself Kristen
    concerning global warming caused by C02 in the atmosphere. It took place on a site maintained by a Dr. Spencer. Out of curiosity I read the exchanges between you and Kristen and it raised a few questions for me that I would like to ask you about. For some background of myself, in order to qualify me as a reasonable questioner, I qualify myself as fairly well educated and well informed in the sciences, but not as a ‘scientist’ as defined by the educational institutions who do so.

    My father was an analytical chemist in applied spectroscopy and holds a few patents including a couple concerning Inductively Coupled Plasma and some of the methods and instrumentation he designed. He was well rounded in the sciences and worked for a couple of well known research companies in the 60s through the 80s. As a kid I had great fun on the weekends when he took me to the labs to check up on some of the work he was currently involved with. He imparted to me a great love of learning and of the sciences and also of the history and methods of scientific inquiry, including how the scientific process works. He wrote and published many papers that are still referenced and cited to this day by many other researchers and publishers involved and interested in his original works. He was my ‘go to’ guy for answers to my many questions about anything, especially about my science questions. He passed away a couple of years ago and I no longer have my source of knowledge to help answer my questions these days. He was extremely generous and patient with anyone with questions for him about his knowledge of science and he loved to impart it to anyone interested, and, as I have found, that most people with specialized knowledge are of the same inclination…To share their knowledge freely, as he did, regarding science which is in the public domain.

    With that said, after having read your exchange and discussion with Kristen on Dr. Spencers web site from earlier in the month regarding C02 and its effect on the climate, and being an expert in Geophysics working for NASA/GISS and Columbia and involved in the climate issue regarding global warming and climate change due to C02, why were you not able to answer the questions posed to you by Kristen regarding the very subject you are supposed to be a specialist in? As a person who is paid his salary by taxpayer money, what reason would you have to refuse to answer Kristens simple questions? To me it sounds like you do not have an answer and that you refused to acknowledge it. You did not and cannot answer his simple and direct questions regarding how C02 in the Earths atmosphere could have any effect on raising the global temperature. You made yourself look sort of foolish in trying to get out of answering his question, and you, rather than acting as a scientist in a public capacity, put his question back on him as if he were the expert. You are the one who is supposed to have this knowledge and there is no logical or reasonable explanation for you to have not imparted it freely. If you do not know the answer to his questions, then simply say that you do not know the answer rather that go round and round with condescending replies to him as if he were the one who should know and if he didn’t, he isn’t worth your time. It was a childish display on your part and not worthy of a scientist that we pay with our tax money and who works for an institution like NASA/GISS and is affiliated with Columbia. If you do have the answers to Kristens questions, I would kindly urge you to answer them freely, openly and as a person worthy of his Degree and the institutions he works for and also for the people who pay him.


    R. Dahlquist

    • okulaer says:

      Russell, thanks 🙂

      I wouldn’t expect a reply from him any time soon, though … Well, if you do, it’s probably of the type “Huh? What? Who? Where? Don’t know what you’re on about, man.” Don’t expect anything of substance, anyway.

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